| Blockade Next: Stratfor's New Intelligence on Maoists
More than 5 years ago, on 04 January 2001, Stratfor, the Austin, USA-based intelligence firm, delcared famously/notoriously that Nepal was likely to be a Maoist state. More or less, if not formally, Nepal has become a de facto Maoist state today. In a concise yet terse analysis (Aug 7/06), Startfor writes: If history is any indication, the Maoists are right to keep their arms until the Nepalese monarchy is eliminated. It adds: "The Maoists cannot afford to give up their arms, and will likely engage in economic blockades until they are certain the king can no longer use the influence he wields in the military to threaten them."
• 'US trying to scuttle peace talks': Maoists say, Times of India
• Nepal's Awkward Alliance, Wall Street Journal
• No Farewell to Arms Yet, Maoists Tell UN,One World
• Meeting halfway for peace in Nepal, Gulf News
• Koirala asks to find consensus on arms issues soon, Nepalnews
Nepal: The Maoists, the Military and the Monarch
August 07, 2006 19 50 GMT
Summary
Nepal's Maoists warned Aug. 7 that peace talks with the seven-party alliance are in danger of collapsing over the issues of disarmament and the king's future role in Nepal's government. The Maoists cannot afford to give up their arms, and will likely engage in economic blockades until they are certain the king can no longer use the influence he wields in the military to threaten them.
Analysis
The peace talks between Nepal's Maoist movement and the seven-party alliance that controls the parliament could collapse over the issues of disarmament and the future of the monarchy, the Maoists' deputy chief, Baburam Bhattarai, said Aug. 7.
King Gyanendra's future role is a pressing concern for the Maoists. The parliament has worked to defang the internally exiled monarch by eliminating his personal army of 3,000 guards July 27 and cutting any sort of institutional ties between the king and the army. Ailing Nepalese Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, the ostensible leader of the seven-party alliance that toppled the king, has twice now advocated a ceremonial role for the monarch. Koirala and some of the royalists would like to see King Gyanendra remain in Nepal, with no control over the government or the armed forces (think the United Kingdom).
Yet the Maoists, who have been fighting the Nepalese army under the king's control for nearly a decade, will find it hard to yield to an agreement that includes any role for the king whatsoever. Despite attempts to separate it from the monarchy, the Nepalese army remains a stronghold of royalist sentiment and is not keen on exiling the king at the request of its near-constant nemesis, the Maoists. Though the army has tenuously pledged its support for the parliament, institutional loyalty to the king runs high. As long as the monarch still enjoys support in the Nepalese army, there is little incentive for the Maoists to give up their guns.
If history is any indication, the Maoists are right to keep their arms until the Nepalese monarchy is eliminated. After his father, King Tribhuvan, was ousted by a democracy movement in 1950 and reduced to a constitutional ruler, King Mahendra and the military seized absolute power in 1960. King Mahendra's son, King Birendra, faced a similar democracy movement in 1990 and was forced to accept some constitutional reforms over the cries of the Maoists, who urged the abolition of the entire monarchy. Sure enough, King Gyanendra seized absolute power in February 2005 and went after the Maoists full throttle. Given that the seven-party alliance itself is split into several contesting factions, it is not impossible that the king could mount another coup.
The Maoists are probably not bluffing when it comes to their demands for the king to be removed from the country, although they could be using the monarchy issue as an excuse to keep their arms. Despite the occasional kidnapping or extortion to generate revenue, it would seem that Maoists, unlike other militant movements under pressure to disarm such as Hezbollah or Hamas, are further along in the political process and have a genuine interest in legitimizing their movement by integrating their cadres into Nepal's armed forces.
Thus, it is extremely unlikely that the Maoists will once again turn to violence in Nepal, even if their demands regarding the king are not met. Rather, they will likely turn to economic warfare: They will blockade roads leading into Kathmandu and the national highways to bring commerce to a halt. Similar tactics were used to bring down King Gyanendra (although they also employed guerrilla attacks) in April 2006 and to generate reproach against Koirala when the 85-year-old prime minister announced his desire for a figurehead monarch June 14. Though the Maoists will not return war to Nepal, they will certainly damage commerce and trade until their demands are met.