Nepal Monitor: The National Online Journal

We get to hear of distortions and falsifications now and then in journalism. Here is one from the scholarly, scientific community— and this is from a respected UN agency—the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): The IPCC, in 2007, had raised an alarm bell on the Himalayan glaciers, saying that they would totally disappear by 2035. The IPCC study had cited an assertion from a "speculative" interview with Syed Hasnain of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi rather than basing it on a peer-reviewed research material!

This was revealed by Fred Pearce in a New Scientific article (11 January 2010). Fred writes in his piece that Hasnain had said in an email interview with him in 1999 that all the glaciers in the central and eastern Himalayas could disappear by 2035. He adds: Despite the 10-year-old New Scientist report being the only source, the claim found its way into the IPCC fourth assessment report published in 2007. Moreover the claim was extrapolated to include all glaciers in the Himalayas.

Until a few days ago, the IPCC stood its ground and but has now, following the New Scientific article, it has begun to review their report.

In India, some dissenting comments were out soon after the IPCC released the report in 2007. Recently, on November 9, 2009, a government-sponsored study conducted by V.K. Raina, former Deputy Director-General, Geological Survey of India, dismissed a total glacier retreat in the Himalayas [See the report entitled
Himalayan Glaciers – A State-of-Art Review of Glacial Studies, Glacial Retreat and Climate Change, 2009]. The Indian study accepted the fact that some glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating, but it asserted that the trend "is nothing out of the ordinary. Nothing to suggest as some have said that they will disappear."

In recent weeks, war of words also broke out between the IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri and the Indian environment minister, Jairam Ramesh. Pauchari called India 'arrogant' in its assessment of glacier retreat and Ramesh attacked the IPCC report for lacking scietific evidence.

The entire controvery has raised many questions about the processes of climate change knowledge. This one appears to be an example of shoddy scholarship, one that has serious implications to climate change awareness, specially in the Himalayan region. What should the common masses living right next to or down the glaciers make out of this controvery? Does such misinformation do them any service? Seeing experts themselves lock horns over an issue that concerns them intimately, aren't they now utterly confused?

Besides confusing the ordinary folks, the falsified assertion in the IPCC study also helped mininform an expert report (An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China, 2005) by World Wildlife Fund. The WWF said in a statement, Jan 20, 2010: Although scientists remain deeply concerned about glacier retreat in that region, this particular prediction has subsequently proved to be incorrect.

Are there more such studies that cited the said speculation?

The naysayers in Climate Change politics must be happy, and they are. But for those whose lives are directly impacted by this issue, it is an unfortunate incident. Undoubtedly, experts, policymakers and journalists must work to dispel their confusion, based on reasons of science, but also their own life-experiences. And combining the two is often a tough task, but a required task anyway.

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Assertion & Retraction by IPCC

Assertion (2007): Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability

10.6.2 The Himalayan glaciers
Himalayan glaciers cover about three million hectares or 17% of the mountain area as compared to 2.2% in the Swiss Alps. They form the largest body of ice outside the polar caps and are the source of water for the innumerable rivers that flow across the Indo-Gangetic plains. Himalayan glacial snowfields store about 12,000 km3 of freshwater. About 15,000 Himalayan glaciers form a unique reservoir which supports perennial rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra which, in turn, are the lifeline of millions of people in South Asian countries (Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, India and Bangladesh). The Gangetic basin alone is home to 500 million people, about 10% of the total human population in the region.

Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005).

The receding and thinning of Himalayan glaciers can be attributed primarily to the global warming due to increase in anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. The relatively high population density near these glaciers and consequent deforestation and land-use changes have also adversely affected these glaciers. The 30.2 km long Gangotri glacier has been receding alarmingly in recent years (Figure 10.6). Between 1842 and 1935, the glacier was receding at an average of 7.3 m every year; the average rate of recession between 1985 and 2001 is about 23 m per year (Hasnain, 2002). The current trends of glacial melts suggest that the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers that criss-cross the northern Indian plain could likely become seasonal rivers in the near future as a consequence of climate change and could likely affect the economies in the region. Some other glaciers in Asia – such as glaciers shorter than 4 km length in the Tibetan Plateau – are projected to disappear and the glaciated areas located in the headwaters of the Changjiang River will likely decrease in area by more than 60% (Shen et al., 2002). [go here for these portions on IPCC report]

Retraction (2010): IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan glaciers (see note 1)

The Synthesis Report, the concluding document of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (page 49) stated: "Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources from population growth and economic and land-use change, including urbanisation. On a regional scale, mountain snow pack, glaciers and small ice caps play a crucial role in freshwater availability. Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout the 21st century, reducing water availability, hydropower potential, and changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes),
where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives."

This conclusion is robust, appropriate, and entirely consistent with the underlying science and the broader IPCC assessment.

It has, however, recently come to our attention that a paragraph in the 938-page Working Group II contribution to the underlying assessment (see note 2) refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. In drafting the paragraph in question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly.

The Chair, Vice-Chairs, and Co-chairs of the IPCC regret the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in this instance. This episode demonstrates that the quality of the assessment depends on absolute adherence to the IPCC standards, including thorough review of "the quality and validity of each source before incorporating results from the source into an IPCC Report" (see note 3). We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of performance. (Released in Geneva, 20 January 2010)

Notes
1. This statement is from the Chair and Vice-Chairs of the IPCC, and the Co-Chairs of the IPCC Working Groups.
2. The text in question is the second paragraph in section 10.6.2 of the Working Group II contribution and a
repeat of part of the paragraph in Box TS.6. of the Working Group II Technical Summary of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
3. This is verbatim text from Annex 2 of Appendix A to the Principles Governing IPCC Work.

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Also see
> Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007

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