Nepal Monitor: The National Online Journal

The new US President Barack Obama has chosen Afghanistan over any other foreign affairs problem for his country. Obama perceives the situation in Afghanistan as precarious, needing urgent action. He has consistently emphasized that Afghanistan requires America’s central focus on the battle against terrorism. In his assessment, America “got distracted by Iraq” and one of the biggest mistakes it made strategically after 9/11 was to “fail to finish the job" in Afghanistan.

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, pursuing Obama foreign policy objective, told her confirmation hearing in the US Senate that fighting terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan would be the highest priority of the new administration. This priority, in her words, will be supported by an “equally important" comprehensive plan which will involve using all elements of the US power — diplomacy, development and defense.

Warning that the US faced “a gargantuan task” in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Senator John Kerry has said that as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee he would push for tripling non-military US aid to Pakistan, putting that country and Afghanistan at the top of his panel’s agenda in the new Congress.

These policy statements came on the eve of Obama's pre-determined swearing-in ceremony on 20th January, 2009. They sent the most significant geo-political as well as security signals perhaps singularly to China, a common and most immediate neighbor to both-Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Chinese view the regional situation with consternation. Statements by Yang Jiechi, the Chinese foreign minister, underscore such anxiety. For example, Jiechi has said that the situation in China's surrounding areas “is not so stable.” He has expressed his country’s desire to engage in the region: “We want to be a sincere partner of cooperation with our neighbors. As a big country in Asia and a country with a growing economy, China should continue to play an important part in maintaining the stability and development of Asia, including in ….combating terrorism."

In that statement Jiechi did not directly mention Afghanistan and Pakistan as did the US for its highest priority engagement. This indicates that China is in no mood at this stage to parallel the US power in its immediate neighborhood. At the same time, China would not like to abstain from sending out her message about the up-scaling instability there.

The year 2009 marks 30 years of the establishment of China-US diplomatic relation. China views this relation in a forward-looking manner. In the words of Jiechi, "China and the United States, as two major countries, should keep their relations in good shape. This conforms to the fundamental interests of the people of the two countries and is conducive to peace, stability and development of the region and the world at large."

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, whose administration formalized diplomatic ties with China 30 years ago, on 12 January appealed President Obama to find ways to work more closely with Beijing on global issues. For Carter this was essential the US and China forged the most important diplomatic relationship in the world today. Carter considered that both sides had to overcome periodic tensions and find ways to cooperate on issues including terrorism. Carter, recently in Beijing, praised China for its remarkable transformation over the past three decades. He conveyed greetings from Obama to President Hu Jintao.

Reports suggest that China also is taking a special care to have an auspicious beginning with President Obama. In the beginning of the New Year, 2009, Hu Jintao talked to Obama over the telephone. Describing the telephone talk, Jiechi said, "The atmosphere (of the telephone conversation) was very good. Both sides stated their commitment to China-US relations. …In today's world of the 21st century, Mr. Obama will surely view China-US relations from a strategic and long-term perspective. … I believe what is important now is to ensure that the relationship between China and the new US administration gets off to a good start. "

How will the US-China ties in case of Afghanistan in particular and South-Central Asia in general be customized on the Afghan horizon? To recall, in his meeting (14 November, 2007) with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, Jiechi had spoken highly of Afghanistan's staunch support to China on the issue of combating "East Turkistan" terrorist forces. He expressed the hope that Afghanistan would maintain long-term stability. He pledged to enhance bilateral coordination in non-traditional security areas to push for long-term, stable development of the comprehensive cooperative partnership.

The interface of the US and China in Afghanistan (the latter is Nepal's fellow-member in the regional outfits, such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation-SAARC and International Center for Integrated Mountain Development-ICIMOD) will put up a litmus test on the resilience and maturity of both the countries. This is more so given the prevalence of new Cold War situation in the region to gain political control over state power, and renew and extend hotspots of separatist activities.

Nepal must take heed of the implications of these developments on her geo-politics. According to Chiran Thapa, former Royal Palace Secretary, inadequacies characterize Nepal's relationship with both the US and China (see China, the United States and Nepal, 2004). How we will increasingly address these inadequacies and how the US and China reciprocate with us when the US and China 'meet' in Afghanistan is any body's guess.

It is a highly unsatisfactory situation. The national debate held on "Foreign policy of (new) Nepal: challenges and opportunities" organized in Kathmandu in December, 2008 was very rich in terms of intents of national foreign policy. But the national debate did not tackle as much the critically important strategicity of foreign policy. What is certain is that Afghanistan holds basic security, and logistics implications which go beyond Sino-US bilateral affairs and affect the whole Asia-Pacific rim.

But the lack of strategicity can push for any alternatives. As Minendra Rijal, policy analyst, says, "If you look from China, the US looks closer." As the two countries close in Afghanistan, Nepal will be bound to adapt to a geo-political alternative as well.

Dr. Upendra Gautam is General Secretary of China Study Center-Nepal. He contributed this article to Nepal Monitor.

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